What if....

Recently, there was a lot of attention given to a story run by the Chicago Tribune. You probably read it. It concerned various, fairly credible, employees at O'Hare Airport that spotted what they believed to be a disc-like craft hovering over Concourse C. After several minutes, the alleged vehicle shot through the clouds with so much force that it left a disc-shaped hole in the cloud cover. More than half of the country believes that some UFOs are extraterrestrial-manufactured vehicles. And the number grows steadily. I'm not going to discuss whether "they" are real or not. Old debate that doesn't get anywhere. It's a big universe and the odds we are alone are infintesimally small. So, really, it's not a question of "if", but "when." So what will happen when we meet "them?" Well, I think a lot of it depends on when and where we meet them. Let's look at the "tomorrow" scenario, meaning what if we discover intelligent alien society tomorrow. First, a lot would depend on how we find and contact them. There's three ways that could happen. 1. They contact us. 2. We contact them. 3. We discover evidence of their passing.In the first option, they'll either contact us by long-range communications or by visiting us directly. If it's the former, breathe a sigh of relief, they're probably peaceful. A message from beyond, probably in pure math, that says "hey, you're not alone, allow us to introduce ourselves" is a pretty good sign they're benign. This would spark a renaissance in human thinking. First, they're likely to share some technology that we could find useful. Then we have to change our view of the universe. However, some people believe it would bring about world peace and unity and stuff like that. I doubt it. If they're alien, they're philosophical standpoints are not likely to be compatible with ours on many levels. So much of what we do and how we think is genetic and evolutionary, although we don't like to think so. Beings who went through a different evolutionary path are not likely to think like we do. There would be both big and little differences. For example, they may not value individual freedom as something important. Or they value it far out of proportion to society. Then there will be the little things. They may not be as bashful about procreation. They may not understand privacy OR they could be ultra-private to the point where even staring someone in the eye is considered impolite, or asking a question of any kind. The point is that we'd have to adjust our way of thinking to associate with them somehow, and, likely for centuries, they're very presence and actions, even if peaceful, will be unnerving to many of us. The less tolerant groups on our world, such as religious fundamentalists and ultra-conservatives, are not likely to be able to deal well with an alien species. Their world views don't have the flexibility. Because, if they contact us from a distance, it will take years for us to communicate unless their first messages include instructions on how to create faster-than-light communications systems, it will be easier for us to get used to. It will be a gradual change that allows for a lot of debate, re-education and public discourse. We'll have time between communications to discuss how (and if) to respond. It will be unsatisfying in some ways, but we could adjust better.
If they show up on our doorstep, I'd be a little worried. If you're an advanced species that's peacefully exploring, you don't go parking your mothership over D.C. unless you have a sick sense of humor. If you're not peaceful, that's exactly the way you approach. Pearl Harbor on a planetary scale. If this happens, there's really not much we can do. If they are after the planet itself then its as simple as tailoring a biological agent and spraying it in the high atmosphere. In a few weeks we'd all be gone. Taking us as slaves and whatnot is also possible, though a bit more difficult. But unless we can get the nukes off we're done for until we could learn their technology and rebel in a few generations. Fortunately, physics seems to indicate that there's little defense against a nuke besides a really hardened structure. The problem is that they need guidance systems unless you use dumb "fire and forget" rockets.
2. We contact them.
Not in this lifetime I don't think. We've beamed out a couple signals into the ether on purpose, but we have no way of knowing if we're aiming them at anyone or anything capable of listening or responding. But, if by chance SETI picks up a signal not aimed at us, and we decide to beam a message, this is the means of contact that we will be the most able to adapt to. Before such a message is sent there will be a lot of public and scientific discourse on what the message should say. There will be analysis of their signals which will attempt to scry out their psychological profile and respond in the most appropriate manner. This would be the calmest transition we could have, most likely.
3. We discover evidence. The face on Mars turns out to be an actual structure (I know it's not, but for the sake of conversation...), an alien body's uncovered in an aztec tomb, an astronomer locates a Dyson Sphere a few light years away, a CNN news crew in Iraq happens to catch a clearly-defined craft hovering over Najaf at night, or a whistleblower stationed at Groom Lake comes forward with alien vessel debris. In a lot of ways, this is similar to if we are contacted. We still have to deal with the fact that they exist. However, there's no real pressure to contact them right away. If its evidence on earth, we have to ask ourselves why they haven't made contact. Was Gene Roddenberry right about there being a "Prime Directive" that says leave developing species alone? Or did they just decide we weren't worth actually talking to.
Most likely such evidence will be provable by the level of sophistication it holds. In other words it will be obvious it was not man-made or natural. A bit of an inferiority complex there, but we can handle it. If we are very lucky, the evidence would unlock secrets to their technology...an actual FTL-capable vessel would be great. This would allow us to visit them first on their own grounds. That's the best situation for us, in case that first meeting does not go well. We'd be better prepared, and there's the chance that we could cover our tracks and not let the local alien neighbors know which house is ours.
Previous studies by the U.S. government, such as the Brookings Report, worry that first contact will create fear and panic, widespread religious doubt, suicides, and a stock market crash to rival the Great Depression. I don't think so. I think we'd have to expand our world view a bit, but in most cases we'd have time to do that. And in the cases where they just show up, well then adjusting will be the least of our worries.

Is America ready for a (fill in the blank) President?

Expect the above question frequently over the next year or so. It's time for America to look inward and see to what limits have tolerance, understanding, and rationality have spread throughout the nation.
As part of the changing demographics this day kind of had to come, although I don't think people expected it all to come down in one year.
Here's the situation:
Take a look at the most likely forerunners of the next election and you'll see something quite surprising. Of the five people most likely to be our next president, only one is a white male protestant.
There are the obvious deviations from the presidential norm: Hillary Clinton (a woman) and Barack Obama (african american). But if you look at the Republican candidates, with the exception of McCain, you find some very non-traditional options.
Rudolph Giuliani (my choice of Republican candidates) is both Italian and Roman Catholic. Depending on what part of the country you are from you may shrug at this, but trust me when I say that there was a time (may still be a time) when either of those would disqualify you from being a likely presidential candidate as much as being black would. I did not encounter virtually any anti-Italian racism back in Michigan, but here on the east coast I lived with an Irish guy when I first moved in that told me, in all seriousness "I'm not racist. I love everybody...except for those f***ing w*ps."
I was really confused by this until someone laid out the old Irish/Italian social dynamics here on the east coast. And apparently such feelings are not restricted to the Irish. It always amazes me to what lengths we'll go to find something to dislike about our fellow man.
Next we have Mitt Romney. On the surface, he looks like your typical politician. But he's Mormon. That makes a LOT of my fellow Christians queasy. Mormons get (often unfairly) grouped together with Mormon fundamentalists that marry multiple wives, some of whom may or may not be underage or their cousins, as well as believing in a book that is in addition to the Holy Bible which claims there were incidents of holy importance here in America. Most Christians believe Jesus had the last word on things (and Paul through him) and get worried about anyone who came along after that and claimed they were bringing god's word, be it the Mormon's book or the Koran. For many, voting for a mormon isn't that far off from voting for a muslim. If we were grown ups, neither would be an issue, but we're not all grown up here. Just look at the fuss made over Keith Ellison. And he was just being sworn into Congress. Can you imagine the hysteria if Romney wanted to be sworn in as president on the Book of Mormon?
Then again, Mormon is a religion populated by, for the most part, whites which at one point claimed being black was a curse, so many in America are liable to give it a pass, particularly in the South. We'll see.
Then, of course, we have Hillary Clinton. Despite the fact she'd be fine as president, she has a lot of checks against her. First is the fact that she's a woman. We have all types of silly ideas as to what would happen with a woman president. I've heard statements, from women no less, that they would worry about decisions she made during her menstral cycle for heaven's sake.
And, people consider her cold and bitchy. Of course, when you look at her actual statements, she's no different AT ALL from the attitude of her male senate compatriots. The problem is that most americans aren't willing to judge a woman in power on their job performance alone, like they do a man, but instead judge her on whether she can be a senator AND still someone bake cookies after floor votes. It's a silly standard, but the next time someone tells you Hillary (whom I've met and is as nice a person as you'll meet) is a "cold fish" just pretend what she said was said by a male senator and ask yourself whether we'd make a point of noting how cold he was for saying what she said.
Finally, we get the the most obvious one, Barack Obama. Interestingly, I think, of the group, he and Giuliani are the two most likely not to be hindered as much by biological and religious factors.
Say what you want about the evangelical movement, but they are dead set against being defined as racist. Evangelicals have problems with Obama's more liberal stances, but they've split as a group over him due to his obvious christian influences and statements. It's very much not a matter with race for them, which could exert a power influence over southern voters who would usually never vote for an african american en masse.
Obama has other factors going for him: He's mixed, which can be a sin or a curse depending on what part of the country you are in. He's religious, but liberal, which means that he can draw votes, or lose them, from both extremes of the political spectrum, and he has a good message and charisma, both things Hillary and everyone but Giuliani struggle with.

Is America ready, and will America vote, for any of the four people above? I think it is, and I think they will. The question is this: whose message will rise above the inherent gunshy attitude of the typical white anglo-saxon protestant american voter toward people who are not like themselves?
Then again, maybe that does not matter. If the WASP voter stays divided, as it has during the last elections, into its little various camps, the next president, and future ones as well, may be decided by something else: who speaks the best spanish.

More troops? Unfortunately, yes.

In general, in recent years, I've found myself agreeing more than disagreeing with Democrats when it comes to policy matters. I tend toward being fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, so right now no party encapsulates my total belief package. My view on government could be summed up as "don't spend more than we give you and leave us the **** alone."
However, I did find myself, to my own surprise, siding with George W. Bush of all people regarding what needs to be done in Iraq.
Trust me, I was as floored as you are.
Last night he put forward a new plan for dealing with Iraq. I doubt it will work, but the principle behind it is sound. There needs to be a surge of troop presence in Baghdad (and the Al- Anbar province) to smother violence there so that the Iraqi government can get on its feet.
Personally, I do not support the war. Oh, I bought into it at first, when I believed that Iraq was working on nukes and all types of other nasty stuff, but like many Americans, when that turned out to be a farce, my support went up in smoke. I feel like we were hoodwinked and bamboozled and the real culprit and danger, Osama bin Laden, has been allowed to skate free while we got mired down in a place we should not have been.
However, we broke it. We have to fix it. And it will hurt us for years to come. It will hurt us economically, politically, socially and knocked us off the moral high horse the U.S. claimed to hold for so many decades. However, we can't run from it. We have to stick things out.
Why? Because it is our responsibility. And, I personally think it will serve as a moral lesson for generations to come that war is serious business and not something you go into lightly, or at all if possible. This administration seemed to have forgotten that at some point. Oh, they gave lip service to the gravity of going to war, but now that we know what they knew and what our intelligence agencies told them, it's clear they did not have a solid footing to commit us to this war.
War is painful, war is destructive, war is death. Those things do not end on the battlefield. Consider Iraq our millstone. We have to bear it to the end not only for the sake of honor and responsibility, but for the simple reason that we've got it coming for sticking our nose in it in the first place. Not to mention the fact that, yes, if Iraq completely collapses we'll have problems there for years to come and eventually would likely have to go back anyway. Might as well do things right now while we're there. Bush will get his due in history for this farce. Of that I'm sure. Let's not make 25 million people pay the price along with him.

Many Democrats and some Republicans have suggested that we need to pull back to show the Iraqi's we're serious about them taking responsibility for their nation. Good policy in general, but it doesn't work in this instance specifically. Why? Because I don't think we can trust al Maliki and the current Iraqi administration as far as we can throw them.
There are shiite and sunni death squads roaming the streets in packs, killing virtually indiscriminately. Too often the shiite death squads are reported to be wearing military and police uniforms when doing their dirt. Also, the cleric Muqtada al Sadr and his Mahdi Army are an open, unabashed shiite militia, tied to numerous deaths and the kidnapping of at least one U.S. soldier. When it came time for us to go into Sadr City (Muqtada's Baghdad stronghold) to find our man, al Maliki turned on us in support of the illegal Mahdi Army.
Here's what I think the reality is in Baghdad and other portions of Iraq:
We've successfully trained and armed a shiite genocide faction in the Middle East.
I think once we withdraw from Iraq there will be a human crisis on the scale of Darfour, Sudan as shiites trained by the U.S. and armed with U.S. weaponry, will massacre the Sunnis. Now, we know there are Sunni factions just as murderous. But you and I know the world will forget all about that when they have a shiite armed with an M-16 on Time Magazine.
And, the shiites are in power. That gives them an advantage, which, when unchecked, could lead to horrific slaughter.
For all our claims to to understand the Shiite/Sunni conflict it still boils down to age-old clan-based animosity. We've seen this fight before.
Montagues v. Capulets.
Hatfields v. McCoys
Earps v. Clantons
Crips v. Bloods.
Ninjas v. Pirates.
When one side gets a distinct advantage over the other, there's a bloodbath.
That's why we have to stay for the time being and calm things down. We need to bring the level of violence there down. That means making some people we call friends mad. It means going into Sadr City, shutting down the Mahdi Army as well as Al Queda in Iraq. It means asking al Maliki's forgiveness instead of begging his permission when we go after shiite deathsquads with political ties. Enough uniforms on the street WILL make a difference, if we are allowed to take the gloves off and not view conflicting certain people as pariah.
Once the situation has calmed down and there are new elections, perhaps a calm, secure Iraqi people will be more inclined to vote in someone who has the whole nation's interests at heart.
The only real difficulty I see will be making sure our people have the latitude they need. The only question is whether 20,000 troops are enough.
I know people want the Iraqis to step up, I do too. But, really, if that were a driving force in the minds of the Iraqis Saddam wouldn't have been in power in the first place.

A Marine's Letter Home

DL's note: This letter has been circulating the net and other places recently. It is a letter home from an anonymous marine in Iraq. Time Magazine recently verified it's authenticity. I thought it was one of those internet fantasy creations at first. It tells the story of Iraq and the U.S. soldiers there in a way nobody else can. If we are going to learn from this conflict, we have to understand it. A while back I posted a letter from an insurgent. Here's one from a marine for balance, for posterity, and for sake of understanding a little better the whys, hows and who's of a conflict that will be analyzed and studied for a thousand years.

All: I haven't written very much from Iraq. There's really not much to write about. More exactly, there's not much I can write about because practically everything I do, read or hear is classified military information or is depressing to the point that I'd rather just forget about it, never mind write about it. The gaps in between all of that are filled with the pure tedium of daily life in an armed camp. So it's a bit of a struggle to think of anything to put into a letter that's worth reading. Worse, this place just consumes you. I work 18-20-hour days, every day. The quest to draw a clear picture of what the insurgents are up to never ends. Problems and frictions crop up faster than solutions. Every challenge demands a response. It's like this every day. Before I know it, I can't see straight, because it's 0400 and I've been at work for 20 hours straight, somehow missing dinner again in the process. And once again I haven't written to anyone. It starts all over again four hours later. It's not really like Ground Hog Day, it's more like a level from Dante's Inferno.
Rather than attempting to sum up the last seven months, I figured I'd just hit the record-setting highlights of 2006 in Iraq. These are among the events and experiences I'll remember best.
Worst Case of Deja Vu — I thought I was familiar with the feeling of deja vu until I arrived back here in Fallujah in February. The moment I stepped off of the helicopter, just as dawn broke, and saw the camp just as I had left it ten months before — that was deja vu. Kind of unnerving. It was as if I had never left. Same work area, same busted desk, same chair, same computer, same room, same creaky rack, same... everything. Same everything for the next year. It was like entering a parallel universe. Home wasn't 10,000 miles away, it was a different lifetime.
Most Surreal Moment — Watching Marines arrive at my detention facility and unload a truck load of flex-cuffed midgets. 26 to be exact. We had put the word out earlier in the day to the Marines in Fallujah that we were looking for Bad Guy X, who was described as a midget. Little did I know that Fallujah was home to a small community of midgets, who banded together for support since they were considered as social outcasts. The Marines were anxious to get back to the midget colony to bring in the rest of the midget suspects, but I called off the search, figuring Bad Guy X was long gone on his short legs after seeing his companions rounded up by the giant infidels.
Most Profound Man in Iraq — an unidentified farmer in a fairly remote area who, after being asked by Reconnaissance Marines if he had seen any foreign fighters in the area replied "Yes, you."
Worst City in al-Anbar Province — Ramadi, hands down. The provincial capital of 400,000 people. Lots and lots of insurgents killed in there since we arrived in February. Every day is a nasty gun battle. They blast us with giant bombs in the road, snipers, mortars and small arms. We blast them with tanks, attack helicopters, artillery, our snipers (much better than theirs), and every weapon that an infantryman can carry. Every day. Incredibly, I rarely see Ramadi in the news. We have as many attacks out here in the west as Baghdad. Yet, Baghdad has 7 million people, we have just 1.2 million. Per capita, al-Anbar province is the most violent place in Iraq by several orders of magnitude. I suppose it was no accident that the Marines were assigned this area in 2003.
Bravest Guy in al-Anbar Province — Any Explosive Ordnance Disposal Technician (EOD Tech). How'd you like a job that required you to defuse bombs in a hole in the middle of the road that very likely are booby-trapped or connected by wire to a bad guy who's just waiting for you to get close to the bomb before he clicks the detonator? Every day. Sanitation workers in New York City get paid more than these guys. Talk about courage and commitment.
Second Bravest Guy in al-Anbar Province — It's a 20,000-way tie among all these Marines and Soldiers who venture out on the highways and through the towns of al-Anbar every day, not knowing if it will be their last — and for a couple of them, it will be.
Worst E-Mail Message — "The Walking Blood Bank is Activated. We need blood type A+ stat." I always head down to the surgical unit as soon as I get these messages, but I never give blood — there's always about 80 Marines in line, night or day.
Biggest Surprise — Iraqi Police. All local guys. I never figured that we'd get a police force established in the cities in al-Anbar. I estimated that insurgents would kill the first few, scaring off the rest. Well, insurgents did kill the first few, but the cops kept on coming. The insurgents continue to target the police, killing them in their homes and on the streets, but the cops won't give up. Absolutely incredible tenacity. The insurgents know that the police are far better at finding them than we are — and they are finding them. Now, if we could just get them out of the habit of beating prisoners to a pulp... Greatest Vindication — Stocking up on outrageous quantities of Diet Coke from the chow hall in spite of the derision from my men on such hoarding, then having a 122mm rocket blast apart the giant shipping container that held all of the soda for the chow hall. Yep, you can't buy experience.
Biggest Mystery — How some people can gain weight out here. I'm down to 165 lbs. Who has time to eat?
Second Biggest Mystery — if there's no atheists in foxholes, then why aren't there more people at Mass every Sunday?
Favorite Iraqi TV Show — Oprah. I have no idea. They all have satellite TV.
Coolest Insurgent Act — Stealing almost $7 million from the main bank in Ramadi in broad daylight, then, upon exiting, waving to the Marines in the combat outpost right next to the bank, who had no clue of what was going on. The Marines waved back. Too cool.
Most Memorable Scene — In the middle of the night, on a dusty airfield, watching the better part of a battalion of Marines packed up and ready to go home after over six months in al-Anbar, the relief etched in their young faces even in the moonlight. Then watching these same Marines exchange glances with a similar number of grunts loaded down with gear file past — their replacements. Nothing was said. Nothing needed to be said.
Highest Unit Re-enlistment Rate — Any outfit that has been in Iraq recently. All the danger, all the hardship, all the time away from home, all the horror, all the frustrations with the fight here — all are outweighed by the desire for young men to be part of a band of brothers who will die for one another. They found what they were looking for when they enlisted out of high school. Man for man, they now have more combat experience than any Marines in the history of our Corps.
Most Surprising Thing I Don't Miss — Beer. Perhaps being half-stunned by lack of sleep makes up for it.
Worst Smell — Porta-johns in 120-degree heat — and that's 120 degrees outside of the porta-john.
Highest Temperature — I don't know exactly, but it was in the porta-johns. Needed to re-hydrate after each trip to the loo.
Biggest Hassle — High-ranking visitors. More disruptive to work than a rocket attack. VIPs demand briefs and "battlefield" tours (we take them to quiet sections of Fallujah, which is plenty scary for them). Our briefs and commentary seem to have no effect on their preconceived notions of what's going on in Iraq. Their trips allow them to say that they've been to Fallujah, which gives them an unfortunate degree of credibility in perpetuating their fantasies about the insurgency here. Biggest Outrage — Practically anything said by talking heads on TV about the war in Iraq, not that I get to watch much TV. Their thoughts are consistently both grossly simplistic and politically slanted. Biggest Offender: Bill O'Reilly.
Best Intel Work — Finding Jill Carroll's kidnappers — all of them. I was mighty proud of my guys that day. I figured we'd all get the Christian Science Monitor for free after this, but none have showed up yet. [CLARIFICATION FROM THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR: "Regarding the writer's comments about his unit's "Best Intel Work", the Monitor is very grateful for all of the efforts the US government made to secure Jill Carroll's freedom after she was held against her will for 82 days. Monitor Editor Richard Bergenheim expressed his gratitude in a press conference he conducted on the day that the capture of Jill's kidnappers was announced, and Jill directly thanked the men who participated in the operation. Also, the Monitor has offered to send the marine who wrote this letter and his unit 25 gift subscriptions to its weekly international edition."]
Saddest Moment — Having an infantry battalion commander hand me the dog tags of one of my Marines who had just been killed while on a mission with his unit. Hit by a 60mm mortar. He was a great Marine. I felt crushed for a long time afterward. His picture now hangs at the entrance to our section area. We'll carry it home with us when we leave in February.
Best Chuck Norris Moment — 13 May. Bad Guys arrived at the government center in a small town to kidnap the mayor, since they have a problem with any form of government that does not include regular beheadings and women wearing burqahs. There were seven of them. As they brought the mayor out to put him in a pick-up truck to take him off to be beheaded (on video, as usual), one of the Bad Guys put down his machine gun so that he could tie the mayor's hands. The mayor took the opportunity to pick up the machine gun and drill five of the Bad Guys. The other two ran away. One of the dead Bad Guys was on our top twenty wanted list. Like they say, you can't fight City Hall.
Worst Sound — That crack-boom off in the distance that means an IED or mine just went off. You just wonder who got it, hoping that it was a near miss rather than a direct hit. Hear it practically every day.
Second Worst Sound — Our artillery firing without warning. The howitzers are pretty close to where I work. Believe me, outgoing sounds a lot like incoming when our guns are firing right over our heads. They'd about knock the fillings out of your teeth.
Only Thing Better in Iraq Than in the U.S. — Sunsets. Spectacular. It's from all the dust in the air.
Proudest Moment — It's a tie every day, watching our Marines produce phenomenal intelligence products that go pretty far in teasing apart Bad Guy operations in al-Anbar. Every night Marines and Soldiers are kicking in doors and grabbing Bad Guys based on intelligence developed by our guys. We rarely lose a Marine during these raids, they are so well-informed of the objective. A bunch of kids right out of high school shouldn't be able to work so well, but they do.
Happiest Moment — Well, it wasn't in Iraq. There are no truly happy moments here. It was back in California when I was able to hold my family again while home on leave during July.
Most Common Thought — Home. Always thinking of home, of my great wife and the kids. Wondering how everyone else is getting along. Regretting that I don't write more. Yep, always thinking of home.
I hope you all are doing well. If you want to do something for me, kiss a cop, flush a toilet, and drink a beer. I'll try to write again before too long — I promise.